Institutional setting and vaccine sector capabilities. The cases of Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the urgent need for stable vaccine provision worldwide. This paper examines how three Asian countries developed technological, regulatory, market-enabling, and coordination capabilities for vaccine provision during the COVID-19 crisis, with particular attention to the catalytic role of institutional capacity in reshaping vaccine-sector incentive mechanisms. Using a comparative institutional analysis, the study compares Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on semi-structured interviews and secondary sources, the analysis shows that while COVID-19 acted as a catalyst, outcomes varied significantly across the selected countries because of differences in pre-existing capabilities. The study argues that even during a crisis, institutional transformation remains strongly path-dependent and incremental: crisis arrangements reverted once pressure receded, while those bound by contract or market instruments remained.