Modelling the Impact of Tectonic Mass Displacements on Global Timekeeping and UTC Synchronization Algorithms: A Case Study on the Himalayan Lithospheric Transfer

Abstract The continuous movement of lithospheric masses on tectonic plates presents a subtle yet persistent variable affecting Earth’s rotational velocity and, consequently, global time synchronization (Length of Day – LOD). While current models for Leap Second adjustments and Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) algorithms primarily focus on hydrospheric and atmospheric mass transfers (e.g., glacial melting, ocean currents, and atmospheric winds), the long-term and interannual angular momentum shifts caused by orogenic mass displacements are often understated. This study quantitatively models the impact of the Himalayan lithospheric mass transfer on the Earth’s axial moment of inertia and subsequent microsecondlevel LOD variations. Utilizing 250 months of NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite Mascon data (JPL RL06.1M CRI) and International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), a multi-stage signal processing and machine learning pipeline was established. Our findings reveal a statistically significant negative correlation (r = −0.36, p = 3.66 × 10−9) between filtered regional mass anomaly variations in the Himalayas and global LOD deviations. Furthermore, an ensemble Random Forest regression architecture achieved an out-of-sample coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.5635 and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 1.21×10−3 ms2 (corresponding to a Root Mean Squared Error of RMSE = 0.0348 ms or 34.8 μs) across the 2022–2026 test period. This demonstrates that tectonic mass centralization inherently induces microsecond-scale accelerations in rotational velocity, necessitating enhanced solid-Earth correction coefficients in UTC synchronization algorithms for high-frequency trading, 6G/IoT networks, and autonomous navigation systems.