Spatial Differentiation and Driving Factors of Coupling Coordination of Rural “Production–Living–Ecological” Land Functions: An Analysis of Guangdong, China

This study examines the coupling coordination degree of rural “Production–Living–Ecological” (PLE) functions in Guangdong Province, China, at the county. A county indicator system was constructed from multi-source data. The PLE functional levels and the coupling coordination degree of each county were then measured. The driving factors were identified using a Geographically Weighted Random Forest (GWRF) model. The main findings are as follows. (1) Rural PLE functions exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity. The production function scores high in northern Guangdong but low in the core Pearl River Delta. The living function concentrates in the PRD and declines from the core toward the periphery. The ecological function is generally higher in the north and lower in the south. (2) The coupling coordination degree also displays marked spatial contrasts. The core Pearl River Delta suffers from functional imbalance, driven by the excessive concentration of the living function and the compression of production and ecological spaces. In contrast, northern Guangdong—designated primarily as an ecological development zone—forms a high-coordination cluster. Its coordination is supported by ecological conservation, green industries, and infrastructure. (3) The coordination degree is jointly shaped by topographic, climatic, socioeconomic, agricultural production, and land use planning factors, and the effects of all factors vary markedly across space. The effects of administrative area and slope show opposite gradients between the Pearl River Delta Plain and northwestern Guangdong; the effect of economic development follows a “high–low–high” banded pattern from northeast to southwest, reflecting a saturation effect in Guangzhou and Shenzhen; the effects of economic synergy, irrigated area, and chemical fertilizer application are spatially concentrated; and the effects of built-up area extent and vegetation cover extent are relatively weak in northeastern Guangdong. This study introduces the GWRF model into county PLE coordination research. The model captures the spatially nonstationary relationships that conventional models overlook. The findings provide a reference for zone-based optimization and differentiated territorial space governance.