Why do copper mining projects not fulfil their value proposition? Insights into deviations and causes in the 2015–2022 global portfolio

Abstract The copper industry, driven by the energy transition, is projected to grow significantly in the upcoming decades. This growth requires both the expansion of existing operations and the development of new mining projects. However, new initiatives face a series of challenges during implementation and are often commissioned with significant budget overruns and delays, resulting in substantial economic impacts for all parties involved. This research assesses the fulfilment of the value proposition of greenfield copper mining projects in terms of investment amount, production start date, and scope, for a global portfolio of 80 projects developed between 2015 and 2022. The study combines two complementary approaches: descriptive analysis to identify general trends, and the K-means clustering algorithm to explore non-evident patterns. On average, the projects in the analysed portfolio experienced a 21.1% cost overrun and a 3.3-year delay, both measured against pre-feasibility estimates, with significant variations within the sample associated with factors such as location, scope adjustments, and ownership changes. The clustering analysis identifies three project archetypes with distinct deviation profiles, indicating that deviations arise through more than one pathway. Recurrent drivers of value proposition failure include unresolved community conflicts, environmental permitting challenges, inadequate supporting infrastructure, cost inflation, and financing-related disruptions. As these are embedded in both project-level decisions and broader governance environments, we recommend a multi-scalar approach, combining strengthened pre-investment processes incorporating technical, financial, and socio-political risk management, with robust institutional frameworks for predictable permitting, investment in enabling infrastructure, and adaptable strategies for efficient and mutually beneficial evaluation and approval processes.