Hemispheric asymmetry in predicted range shifts of anti-tropical fish under future climate change
Anti-tropically distributed species have long intrigued biogeographers. However, how they will respond to future climate change remains a key unresolved question, particularly for marine species given an expected hemispheric asymmetry in ocean warming. Here, using species distribution models for 172 anti-tropical marine fishes, we predict that northern hemispheric lineages will experience significantly higher range contractions, in agreement with the hemispheric asymmetry in ocean warming. Our predictions show that suitable habitat will be reduced at a similar rate both within and outside marine protected areas, leading protection efficacy (the proportion of the total suitable habitat protected) to remain at current levels, irrespective of the scenario and period considered, and the level of protection efficacy to remain significantly higher in the Southern Hemisphere. These results highlight the need for accounting for hemispheric asymmetry in ocean warming when designing future conservation strategies. As oceans warm unevenly between hemispheres, the future of anti-tropical fishes is unclear. Despite larger future range contractions for northern lineages, protected area efficacy remains unchanged and significantly higher for southern lineages.
Authors
- Hongwei Huang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4415-4311)
- Qiang Lin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9916-7761)
- Geng Qin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8955-2201)
- Ákos Bede‐Fazekas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2905-338X)
- Jorge García Molinos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7516-1835)
- Stefano Mammola (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4471-9055)
- Lei Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8523-6666)
- Zhixin Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3457-2934)
- Wen Xing (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0343-9591)
- Songxi Yuan
- Ying Liu
Institutions
- Eötvös Loránd University (HU)
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- Xiamen University (CN)
- Hokkaido University (JP)
- Institute of Ecology and Botany (HU)
- South China Sea Institute Of Oceanology (CN)
- Water Research Institute (IT)
- HUN-REN Centre for Ecological Research (HU)
- Finnish Museum of Natural History (FI)
- National Research Council (IT)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-10-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-78577-8
- Primary Topic
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Chinese Academy of Sciences
- Beijing Normal University
- University of Hong Kong
- Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
- University of Tokyo
- Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
- South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
- Institute of Hydrobiology
- National Key Research and Development Program of China