LAB #4067 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.0 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.0% (+0.4pp, n=200) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Over the 10 live trades listed, at least 3–4 would likely have been filtered (e.g., GBPUSD LONG, USDJPY SHORT, NZDUSD SHORT via wkjudas, and possibly EURUSD LONG), most of which were losses or still open. Removing those would have eliminated several losing trades, but also potentially the one GBPUSD SHORT WIN (rizzy5m) if its phase distance was outside the band — net effect on this small sample is roughly +0.5 to +1.0 pp win-rate improvement, but PnL delta is uncertain due to open positions and small n. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.4pp win-rate gain on n=200 is statistically weak (z≈0.5, not significant). The filter may reduce trade frequency by 15–25%, w Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23358236
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

LAB #4067 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.0 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #4067 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.0 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.0% (+0.4pp, n=200) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Over the 10 live trades listed, at least 3–4 would likely have been filtered (e.g., GBPUSD LONG, USDJPY SHORT, NZDUSD SHORT via wkjudas, and possibly EURUSD LONG), most of which were losses or still open. Removing those would have eliminated several losing trades, but also potentially the one GBPUSD SHORT WIN (rizzy5m) if its phase distance was outside the band — net effect on this small sample is roughly +0.5 to +1.0 pp win-rate improvement, but PnL delta is uncertain due to open positions and small n. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.4pp win-rate gain on n=200 is statistically weak (z≈0.5, not significant). The filter may reduce trade frequency by 15–25%, w Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.