LAB #4067 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.0 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.0% (+0.4pp, n=200) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Over the 10 live trades listed, at least 3–4 would likely have been filtered (e.g., GBPUSD LONG, USDJPY SHORT, NZDUSD SHORT via wkjudas, and possibly EURUSD LONG), most of which were losses or still open. Removing those would have eliminated several losing trades, but also potentially the one GBPUSD SHORT WIN (rizzy5m) if its phase distance was outside the band — net effect on this small sample is roughly +0.5 to +1.0 pp win-rate improvement, but PnL delta is uncertain due to open positions and small n. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.4pp win-rate gain on n=200 is statistically weak (z≈0.5, not significant). The filter may reduce trade frequency by 15–25%, w Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-10-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23358236
- Primary Topic
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Type
- preprint