Market Decompression: Learning Latent-State Inverse Maps for Cold-Start Financial Prediction

Introduces market decompression, which pretrains a model to recover hidden volatility, jump, and regime states from simulated financial market data, then uses a small number of real outcomes for forecasting. Tests are conducted in simulated settings and five real markets; results confirm improved performance in three real markets. Single-author paper accepted to the 7th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF 2026). This upload is the author-identified manuscript, not the final ACM version of record.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23377390
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
preprint
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preprint

Market Decompression: Learning Latent-State Inverse Maps for Cold-Start Financial Prediction

Idrees Mustafa Aziz
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
preprint

Market Decompression: Learning Latent-State Inverse Maps for Cold-Start Financial Prediction

Idrees Mustafa Aziz
preprint en

Abstract

Introduces market decompression, which pretrains a model to recover hidden volatility, jump, and regime states from simulated financial market data, then uses a small number of real outcomes for forecasting. Tests are conducted in simulated settings and five real markets; results confirm improved performance in three real markets. Single-author paper accepted to the 7th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF 2026). This upload is the author-identified manuscript, not the final ACM version of record.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Middle East Technical University (TR)
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
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