Digital catalysts and conundrums: Assessing the extent of social media use in democratic political participation in Ethiopia

The study examines the extent of Social Media use in democratic political participation in Ethiopia during 2018-2023. Informed by participatory culture theory and the contrasting lenses of techno-optimism and pessimism that underpin the new dynamics of the techno-realism theoretical framework, the study employed a quantitative content analysis method. Based on empirical data of structured social media content, the study analyzed patterns, forms, and nature of online participation. To this end, systemic categorization was developed around the concept of democratic participation. Variables were set and organized into four major conceptual groups: miscellaneous, deliberation, post-engagement, and mobilization. These variables were further categorized into 21 categories. Through such a procedure, the study analyzed 11,054 social media contents. Findings indicate a pattern of miscellaneous participation where political involvement was predominantly limited to digital gestures with minimal commitment to taking a deliberation approach to participation. Influencers failed to channel engagement toward deliberation or mobilization, while citizens took the media into their own hands, shaping a new, predominantly peaceful participatory culture, albeit with the existence of a notable amount of undemocratic engagement. The public’s attempts to mobilize remain insignificant, fragmented, and undemocratic. This underscores the participation‑oriented character of Ethiopian social media space, where participatory culture is pursued as an end in itself rather than as a pathway to deliberative democratic engagement capable of structured mobilization and meaningful impact. Social media has broadened the reach of political involvement but remains constrained in fostering deliberation‑oriented democratic practices. These dynamics underscore the need for conditional models that specify mediating variables such as institutional openness, media literacy, and offline organizational capacity that determine whether participatory culture matures into participatory politics. The Ethiopian case thus exemplifies a fragile equilibrium of promise and constraint, advancing a moderate form of techno‑realism that situates technology within its socio-political context rather than treating it as inherently emancipatory or corrosive.