Beyond the Northern Sea Route: can China sustain Arctic partnerships with Nordic states while maintaining cooperation with Russia?

This paper examines whether China can maintain cooperation with Nordic states in an era of sanctions, securitisation, and mistrust. The analysis begins from the observation that China’s access to Arctic resources, transport corridors, and industrial projects remains largely mediated through Russia’s Arctic regions (LNG, Northern Sea Route, port infrastructure). Nordic states have become increasingly cautious towards both Russian presence and Chinese strategic investment since 2022. This creates a structural dilemma for China’s Arctic policy. Empirically, the paper traces three arenas where this dilemma becomes visible: First, energy and LNG supply chains, through Novatek’s Arctic LNG projects to European and Asian buyers. Second, maritime and port infrastructure in the European Arctic, including the regulation of access, data, and dual-use technologies. Third, scientific and technological cooperation, while Nordic partners tighten investment screening in critical infrastructure and apply stricter safeguards to sensitive research. Methodologically, the paper combines qualitative analysis of academic and policy documents with selected quantitative indicators on shipping, LNG flows, and investment screening. The material was coded in NVivo to identify patterns of sectoral differentiation, spillover, and what the article terms managed compatibility. The analysis suggests that China adapts its discourse to Nordic expectations of transparency while maintaining deep commercial interdependence with Russia, a relationship that Nordic states increasingly interpret as a source of risk. The article argues that this balance remains fragile. Nordic-Chinese cooperation can persist, but only if China convinces Nordic partners that engagement with Russia in the Arctic does not translate into strategic leverage over Nordic territory, infrastructure, and governance.