Fueling resentment: From vulnerability to fuel price increases to political discontent

Vulnerability to fuel price increases in the transport sector arises from high car use, low income and car dependence (i.e., poor accessibility by alternative modes). This issue is of increasing relevance due to climate policy (e.g., ETS-2 in the EU) and geopolitical conflicts pushing fuel prices up, as well as concerns that this might result in political discontent. While previous research has shown that this vulnerability is geographically uneven, its relationships with infrastructure provision, other forms of socio-economic vulnerability and voting patterns remain unclear. We fill this gap by bringing together research on transport energy vulnerability, the “foundational economy” and political discontent in an empirical study of 1,180 municipalities in Piedmont (Italy). We build a composite index of Vulnerability to Fuel Price Increases and compare it with broader socio-economic vulnerability metrics, a Foundational Economy Index measuring foundational services, and with voting patterns in Italian general elections. Crossing fuel and socio-economic vulnerability reveals four municipal typologies; municipalities vulnerable in at least one dimension comprise 734 municipalities and over 730,000 residents. These profiles vary across conventional classifications and foundational economy provision and therefore would risk being overlooked by redistributive interventions unless bespoke indicators are used. We also find that vulnerability to fuel price increases is associated with support for right-wing populist parties, particularly along the adaptive capacity and exposure dimensions. The findings highlight the importance of identifying transport-related vulnerabilities for decarbonization policies and for their political acceptance.