Metabolomic aging and mortality clocks based on ensemble learning identify systemic aging risk across the human life span in 18,476 individuals
Aging is characterized by progressive functional decline, yet metabolomic signatures across the human life span remain incompletely defined. Here, we profiled plasma metabolomes from 18,476 participants aged 1 to 96 years across six centers in China using nano-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (LDI-MS) and identified 56 representative age-associated metabolites. In a healthy cohort, we developed a stacking ensemble model to estimate metabolomic age and quantified metabolomic age acceleration (mAA) as each individual's deviation from chronological age. Higher mAA was associated with health deterioration and unfavorable lifestyles. During follow-up from 2019 to 2025, individuals with accelerated mAA showed increased risk of incident chronic diseases, such as fatty liver disease, hypertension, and diabetes, as well as increased all-cause mortality. In a disease cohort, we further developed a mortality-linked metabolomic metric (age deviation) that quantified individualized departures from age-expected mortality risk inferred from plasma metabolites. Age deviation was associated with established composite health measures and increased with multisystem disease involvement and higher multimorbidity burden. Together, these findings support the potential of plasma metabolomic profiling as a scalable, life span-wide approach for deriving clinically interpretable metabolomic aging metrics associated with health status, chronic disease risk, and mortality.
Authors
- Honghao Huang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3487-1790)
- Linlin Cao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1787-2465)
- Yudian Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6696-7885)
- Yifan Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8889-1594)
- Jun Pu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2240-5108)
- Kun Qian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1666-1965)
- Wei Lin Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8241-9769)
- Xi Li
- Huiru Jiang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5728-8576)
- Wei Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2905-1990)
Institutions
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN)
- Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College (CN)
- Renji Hospital (CN)
- Shanghai Cancer Institute (CN)
- Fu Wai Hospital (CN)
- Ningbo No.6 Hospital (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Science Translational Medicine
- Published
- 2026-10-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.adz4815
- Primary Topic
- Metabolomics and Mass Spectrometry Studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Shanghai Municipal Health Commission
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Shanghai Municipal Education Commission
- Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality
- National Key Research and Development Program of China Stem Cell and Translational Research