Delivery Uncertainty, Perceived Risk, and Cash-on-Delivery Refusal in Bangladesh

This study examines whether last-mile delivery uncertainty increases customers' intention to refuse a cash-on-delivery (COD) parcel at the doorstep, and whether perceived delivery risk mediates this relationship in Bangladesh's e-commerce sector. Design: Survey data were collected from 176 Bangladeshi online shoppers with recent COD experience and analysed using PLS-SEM in SmartPLS 4. The analysis included discriminant-validity testing, bootstrapped hypothesis testing, mediation analysis, and out-of-sample predictive assessment. Delivery uncertainty significantly increased perceived delivery risk (β = .393, p < .001), which significantly increased COD doorstep refusal intention (β = .458, p < .001). The direct effect of delivery uncertainty on refusal intention was not significant (β = .055, p = .489), whereas the indirect effect through perceived delivery risk was significant (β = .180, p < .001), indicating indirect-only mediation. DU and PDR also showed strong discriminant validity (HTMT = .415). Managers should address customers' risk perceptions through accurate order confirmation, timely reassurance, and clear service-recovery guarantees rather than relying on tracking visibility alone. The study distinguishes delivery uncertainty from perceived delivery risk at the delivery stage and links this psychological mechanism to COD doorstep refusal and the resulting reverse-logistics burden in an emerging market.