Is Receipt of the Bono de Desarrollo Humano Associated with Child Stunting in Ecuador? A Propensity-Score-Matched Analysis of ENDI 2023–2024

This study examines whether current household receipt of Ecuador’s Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH) is associated with child stunting using ENDI 2023–2024. The linked dataset included 6345 children; the revised analytical sample comprised 6310, including 792 current recipients. Propensity scores were estimated from 45 substantively selected balancing covariates; multicategory variables were indicator-coded, and sparse categories in eight variables were pooled to avoid complete separation. Kernel matching yielded the most favourable broad-specification balance (mean standardised bias 3.0%; Rubin’s B = 34.3; Rubin’s R = 1.20) and a recipient–non-recipient stunting-prevalence difference of +1.36 percentage points. A survey-weighted linear probability model estimated an adjusted difference of +1.41 points (95% CI −5.38 to +8.19; p = 0.684). A reduced 14-background-covariate kernel model, estimated on the same 6310 observations, yielded +4.87 points and stronger global balance (Rubin’s B = 18.0; Rubin’s R = 1.26), indicating sensitivity to covariate specification. Because ENDI records only current BDH status, not exposure timing, duration or continuity, these findings are adjusted cross-sectional contrasts rather than causal programme effects and do not establish programme ineffectiveness.