Representation of potential species ranges under future climate scenarios by a collaborative conservation plan

Abstract Conservation planning must take into account climate shifts to effectively protect species now and in the future. We analyzed a collaborative conservation priority map for the southeastern United States for its ability to protect species under a range of possible future climates. We used a dataset of ecological niche model predictions calculated for the next 3 decades for 263 forest‐dependent, terrestrial, vertebrate species of conservation concern in the Southern Appalachian region under future climate scenarios from 4 shared socioeconomic pathways. We overlay these predictions with the conservation plan to determine if the priority map successfully represents potential future ranges of forest‐dependent species, that is, locations that are forested, climatically suitable, and reachable. Results show that priority areas for conservation vary in their ability to capture regions predicted to be important for species. Highest and high priority areas perform better than expected from random selection of priority areas at representing regions for all species in our dataset. However, in the context of 2 other conservation strategies, we find highest priority regions could increase representation of regions likely important for geographically rare species. Identification of the areas within the Southeast that are important to species under climate change is necessary to guide future conservation efforts.