Climate change threatens montane and cloud forest tree species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Abstract Montane and cloud forests are high-elevation ecosystems dependent on specific environmental conditions and increasingly threatened by fragmentation, isolation, and climate change in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We quantified changes in climatic suitability for two characteristic tree species of these ecosystems, Drimys angustifolia and Ilex microdonta , under future climate scenarios, assessing range contraction and expansion, potential losses of suitable areas, and opportunities for ecological restoration. Species distribution models were developed using occurrence records spanning the full known distribution of both species using the MaxEnt algorithm and projected to the periods 2021–2040 and 2061–2080, under intermediate and high-emission scenarios. We also identified priority restoration areas by intersecting climatically suitable areas with restoration requirements under the Brazilian Forest Code and evaluated their overlap with protected areas. Our results indicate substantial reductions in climatically suitable areas for both species. D. angustifolia is projected to decline by 3.9–26.8%, while I. microdonta may lose 10.6–67% of its suitable area, with the strongest reductions occurring in northern mountainous regions. Although some climatically suitable areas overlap lands requiring restoration, these overlaps were less frequent in montane and cloud forests, likely reflecting lower historical land conversion in steep terrain. Protected area coverage was higher in high-elevation environments, but important climatically suitable areas remain outside the current protected-area network. These findings suggest increasing vulnerability of characteristic montane and cloud forest species to climate change and highlight the importance of conserving climate refugia, improving landscape connectivity, and strategically expanding protection in high-elevation regions.