Spatiality of preemptive coercion: How autocrats demolish informal settlements for political control

Abstract Why do authorities demolish informal settlements in metropolises? The social sciences have a long tradition of addressing this issue through the lens of economic development or welfare provision. I instead propose a theory of political control. Autocrats adopt demolition as a preemptive and coercive tool to remove communities substantively and symbolically less legible to them, thereby ensuring societal compliance and restoring visual order. Empirically, I compile a unique dataset of 320 demolished and undemolished informal settlements in Beijing between 2017 and 2018, based on satellite imagery, digital street views, and fieldwork. The results indicate that the low legibility of informal settlements to authorities correlates with a greater likelihood of demolition. This paper contributes to the social science literature by connecting legibility politics with urban governance. It also introduces a spatial perspective and leverages novel data sources to deepen our understanding of preemptive coercion under authoritarianism.