Climate change and agricultural resilience in Assam: unravelling climate trends, farmer adaptation, and socioeconomic drivers across agro-climatic zones

The agriculture sector in Assam is increasingly vulnerable to climatic factors such as erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and increasing humidity, which adversely affect crop productivity and farmers’ livelihoods. The present study analysed long-term climatic trends (1981–2024) and examined farmers’ adaptation strategies across three agro-climatic zones of Assam. The study also investigated the socio-economic factors influencing farmers’ adaptation behaviour towards climate change. Climatic parameters, including rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and relative humidity, were analysed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Primary data were collected from 300 farmers through a multistage stratified random sampling technique. An adaptation index was constructed to assess the extent of climate change adaptation among farmers. Further, Binary Logistic Regression analysis was employed to identify the socio-economic determinants influencing adaptation behaviour. The findings revealed a statistically significant increase in minimum temperature (0.034 °C/year) and relative humidity (0.18%/year), whereas rainfall exhibited a positive but statistically non-significant trend. Among the adaptation strategies, crop diversification emerged as the most widely adopted practice (index score = 0.99), followed by off-season vegetable cultivation (0.87) and crop-livestock integration (0.71). The binary logistic regression results indicated that farm size ( p < 0.001) and extension contact ( p = 0.007) significantly influenced farmers’ adaptation behaviour towards climate change. A one-hectare increase in farm size was associated with an approximately 16%-point increase in the probability of adaptation, while one additional extension contact per year increased the predicted probability of adaptation approximately 0.97% points, holding other explanatory variables constant. At the local level, the study highlights the need to improve farmers’ access to extension services, training, and climate-smart technologies. At the regional level, the findings can help policy makers in areas with similar agro-climatic conditions develop effective strategies to strengthen agricultural resilience and food security.