An Investigation of Built-up Area Expansion in the Syrian Coastal Mountain Environment

As built-up expansion in the Syrian coastal mountainous areas intensifies, its environmental impacts are becoming increasingly severe. Existing research, however, offers limited quantitative evidence to elucidate the dynamics of this phenomenon. This study addresses this gap by employing mixed-method techniques at the district level of Safita. Landsat satellite imagery, remote sensing, and ArcGIS software were used to classify and analyze geospatial data from 2010 to 2020. Statistical methodologies were then applied to investigate spatio-temporal built-up growth, identify the drivers of expansion, and evaluate resultant spatial patterns. The analysis reveals accelerated built-up expansion, with the most dramatic growth occurring in southern peripheral zones, recording increases of 150-169%. The study identifies a persistent trend of low-density, dispersed sprawl following a non-linear trajectory, evidenced by Shannon's entropy increasing steadily to 0.89 by 2020. Analysis of Urban Expansion Rate and Intensity indices shows a distinct shift from moderate, semi-efficient growth (2010–2015) to rapid and extensive sprawl (2015–2020). Furthermore, the Built-up Expansion Index demonstrates an evolution from initial economically driven leapfrog expansion through conflict-induced infilling consolidation to a final hybrid pattern combining edge-expansion and ribbon development. Kernel Density Estimation reveals a fundamental spatial transformation from semi-concentrated hotspots to widespread medium-density sprawl, strongly constrained by physical factors. Specifically, 93% of built-up areas concentrated on gentle slopes (0-15%), and 68% were located within 200 meters of road networks. These findings underscore the urgent need for planning decision-makers to implement strict regulatory measures that curb built-up sprawl, protect agricultural lands and natural resources, and guide growth through updated master plans to achieve sustainable development.