Means‐Tested Public Transportation Subsidies: Causal Evidence and Implications

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the effects of a novel and large‐scale program in King County, Washington, that provides fare‐free public transportation to individuals with low incomes. Using both experimental and quasi‐experimental methods together with rich administrative and survey data, we find that providing free transit has very limited effects on mobility or downstream outcomes related to health and well‐being. We examine possible explanations for the modest effects, which contrast with findings from prior research. Our results suggest that changes in the external environment post‐COVID‐19 pandemic, including changes in norms around fare evasion, reduced the price elasticity of demand for travel by transit among individuals with low incomes.