Geospatial Dynamics of Urban Sprawl and Agricultural Land Loss in the Faiyum, Egypt: Scenario Modeling for Sustainable Land Management

Rapid and uncontrolled urban growth poses a severe threat to arable agricultural oases by jeopardizing vital ecosystem services and regional food security. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban sprawl over a 16-year period (2007–2023) in Faiyum City (Egypt), an ancient oasis surrounded by prime agricultural soils, and projects future spatial trends under unconstrained development scenarios. Utilizing high-resolution multi-temporal satellite imagery integrated with Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, built-up area expansion was quantitatively measured, sectoral decomposition shows expansion on every flank of the historic core but at markedly uneven rates, converting between 13.8% and 55.7% of the land available in each direction and an area-based growth model was applied to simulate short- and long-term land transformation trends. Empirical findings reveal that between 2007 and 2023 the urban built-up area expanded by 55.7%, from 861.7 ha to 1341.6 ha, at an average annual compound growth rate of 2.8%, raising its share of the enclosed study area from 37.7% to 58.6%. Sampling of the converted area shows that 80.6% of it had been agricultural land at the baseline date, giving 386.9 ha of farmland lost over the period. The projections indicate that, without intervention, built-up cover would occupy 67.3% of the 2287 ha enclosed by the Ring Road by 2028 and 77.3% by 2033, leaving 518.7 ha of the unbuilt land that remained in 2023. This trajectory bears directly on SDG 11 and SDG 15 targets. Containment instruments such as binding Urban Growth Boundaries and compact infill policies are discussed as directions indicated by the spatial evidence, although their feasibility, cost and enforcement requirements lie outside the scope of this analysis.