LAB #4058 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+5.1pp, n=595) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the current live window would have blocked the two most recent wkjudas entries (GBPUSD LONG at 1.35301 and USDJPY SHORT at 160.187) — both closed as losses. It would also likely have rejected the NZDUSD SHORT via wkjudas (0.59214) and possibly the AUDUSD SHORT via rizzy5m, depending on their phase distances. Removing those losses from the window flips the net result from roughly −2.5R to approximately +1.2R (based on the two confirmed wins remaining and the two confirmed losses removed). The expected win-rate delta in this small sample is consistent with the backtest (+5pp), but the PnL improvement is driven more by avoiding two large losers than by adding winners. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) will reduce trade freq Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23357676
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
preprint
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LAB #4058 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
preprint

LAB #4058 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+5.1pp, n=595) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the current live window would have blocked the two most recent wkjudas entries (GBPUSD LONG at 1.35301 and USDJPY SHORT at 160.187) — both closed as losses. It would also likely have rejected the NZDUSD SHORT via wkjudas (0.59214) and possibly the AUDUSD SHORT via rizzy5m, depending on their phase distances. Removing those losses from the window flips the net result from roughly −2.5R to approximately +1.2R (based on the two confirmed wins remaining and the two confirmed losses removed). The expected win-rate delta in this small sample is consistent with the backtest (+5pp), but the PnL improvement is driven more by avoiding two large losers than by adding winners. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) will reduce trade freq Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
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