Artificial general intelligence and public diplomacy: A scenario analysis of possible futures

Does the potential advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) render traditional public diplomacy obsolete? While scholars have extensively documented the integration of narrow AI into diplomatic practice, we still lack a structural understanding of how AGI might redefine the very mechanics of international persuasion. Public diplomacy serves as a critical testing ground here, sitting at the volatile intersection of legitimacy, persuasion, and algorithmic mediation. In this study, I offer three primary interventions. First, I conceptualize Computational Narrative Power (CNP) as an actor's capacity to optimize persuasive narratives at scale, relying on production volume, targeting precision, adaptive responsiveness, and attributional opacity. Second, I map four plausible AGI futures based on the interplay between technological diffusion and global governance architectures: Soft Hegemony, Collective Smart Diplomacy, Narrative Cold War, and Digital Anarchy. Rather than predictive prophecies, I treat these scenarios as analytical stress tests demonstrating that governance structures dictate international stability just as much as technological breakthroughs. Finally, I identify an inherent transparency-efficiency trade-off in automated statecraft, arguing that AGI compels us to shift our analytical gaze from mere message dissemination to the governance of underlying epistemic infrastructures. • Introduces Computational Narrative Power (CNP) in AGI-driven public diplomacy. • Explores four AGI futures using Schwartz's 2x2 scenario planning matrix. • Analyzes AGI capability distribution and international governance models. • Highlights the critical role of anticipatory governance for systemic stability.