CHANGES IN RECORDED CRIME ACROSS MILITARY DEPLOYMENT PHASES IN HAVANA, WINDHOEK (2017–2022)

This study evaluates whether the joint deployment of the Namibian Defence Force with the Namibian Police Force and the Windhoek City Police under Operation Hornkranz and Operation Kalahari Desert produced measurable and durable changes in reported crime in the Havana Informal Settlement of Windhoek, Namibia, over the 2017–2022 observation window. The study used administrative crime records from the Namibian Police Force Wanaheda station and the Windhoek City Police, segmented into seven offence categories across three consecutive epochs: pre-deployment, active deployment, and post-deployment. Analysis applied interrupted time-series logic supported by one-way repeated-measures analysis of variance, the Friedman non-parametric test, and Bonferroni-adjusted pairwise comparisons, with normality and sphericity pre-tests governing test choice. The deployment produced a statistically significant in-window decline in total recorded crime, followed by a sharp post-withdrawal rebound, yielding a statistically non-significant net change across the full window. Reductions were largest and most sustained for weapons and firearms offences, while regulatory offences inflated under expanded enforcement. The trajectory is consistent with transient-guardianship, rather than structural, crime prevention. Military deployments of this type deliver tactical deterrence rather than durable safety. Enduring gains require civilian-specific rules of engagement, codified exit strategies, independent oversight, and parallel investment in civilian-policing capacity. This is the first settlement-level administrative-statistical evaluation of military-supported urban crime prevention in Namibia, providing a replicable analytic template for similar informal-settlement contexts in the Southern African Development Community.