Did the Syrian Refugee Influx Change Remittance Dynamics in Jordan?

The Syrian civil war forced millions of people to flee their homes, with Jordan becoming one of the principal host countries. The resulting refugee influx placed considerable pressure on public services, labor markets, infrastructure, and household resources. This paper asks a narrower empirical question: whether Jordan’s aggregate recorded remittance inflows exhibited a detectable change following the Syrian refugee influx. Using annual World Development Indicators data for 1980–2020, we combine structural-break analysis with comparative counterfactual methods. The outcome is the logarithm of the remittance-to-nominal-GDP ratio. Structural break tests provide no statistically significant evidence of a break in the growth rate of this ratio around the Syrian crisis. Comparative estimates provide more nuanced evidence. Using South Asian economies as a GCC-remittance-corridor benchmark, the synthetic difference-in-differences (SDiD) estimate is approximately −0.50 log points and is stable when India is excluded. Comparisons with MENA economies provide weaker and donor-sensitive evidence. The results therefore do not support a detectable increase in Jordan’s aggregate recorded remittance inflows following the refugee influx. Because official balance-of-payments statistics do not identify the nationality of remittance senders or recipients, the findings cannot establish whether Syrian refugees received financial support from relatives abroad.