Decoupling Tourism Recovery from Environmental Pressure in ASEAN: Recovery-Structure-Efficiency Pathways, 2019–2024

Post-pandemic tourism planning requires distinguishing recovery in visitor volume and economic value from changes in environmental pressure. This study examines ten ASEAN economies during 2019–2024 using tourism-specific WTTC/Oxford Economics footprints, WTTC Economic Impact Research, ASEANstats arrivals, and Ember electricity data. A Recovery-Structure-Efficiency (RSE) framework organises comparative evidence alongside the full eight-state Tapio classification, short-panel diagnostics, and an absolute-footprint robustness test. Average T&T GHG intensity fell from 1.235 to 0.957, low-carbon energy use rose from 3.57% to 5.09%, and freshwater intensity declined from 138.74 to 106.06. Matched-vintage results identify five strong, four recessive, and one weak decoupling pathway. Similar decoupling states coexist with different recovery, resource, electricity, and sectoral profiles. Low-carbon energy shows no stable within-country association with GHG intensity, whereas freshwater intensity remains positively associated with GHG intensity in absolute-footprint specifications. The findings support pathway-specific tourism planning.