Decoding availability of services: interplay of income inequality and intergovernmental transfers on child protection

This study investigates the effect of income inequality on the availability of child protection services at the municipality level in Finland, by considering the moderating role of intergovernmental transfers. Utilising macro-level panel data from 293 municipalities over the period 2010–2022, the study examines whether income inequality, measured by the Gini index, affects the rate of child protection plans. The findings reveal that higher income inequality is associated with lower realised availability of child protection services, a pattern consistent with the inverse intervention law. This law posits that areas with greater needs often receive fewer services, which is particularly evident in municipalities with significant income disparities. Intergovernmental transfers are intended to equalise service capacity across municipalities, but their role is conditional. The interaction results indicate that they may buffer the negative association between income inequality and the availability of child protection services. They should therefore be understood as a fiscal buffer rather than a sufficient solution to unequal access to services. More equitable access may also depend on organisational arrangements and social work practices through which fiscal capacity is translated into accessible support for children and families.