Climate Change and Dispersal Limitation Reshape Future Habitat Accessibility for Lady Amherst's Pheasant ( Chrysolophus amherstiae ) in China

ABSTRACT Montane forest birds are highly vulnerable to climate warming because their habitats are often fragmented, topographically constrained, and difficult to track through dispersal. For Lady Amherst's Pheasant ( Chrysolophus amherstiae ), future climate risks remain poorly understood, especially the mismatch between habitat suitability and habitat accessibility. We combined occurrence records across China with multisource environmental variables using ensemble species distribution modeling, optimal‐parameter geographical detector analysis, and dispersal simulations. The ensemble model showed good predictive performance, yielding an AUC of 0.935 and a TSS of 0.748. Habitat suitability was mainly associated with annual potential evapotranspiration, precipitation of the driest month, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, and their interactions. Current highly suitable habitats were concentrated around the Hengduan Mountains and adjacent plateau transition zones, covering 99 623.42 km 2 , or 3.9% of the study area. Total suitable habitat declined under most future scenarios, except for the late century under the highest‐emission scenario, where expansion mainly involved low‐ and medium‐suitability habitats. Centroids of predicted suitable areas shifted westward by 160–371 km, while mean elevation increased from 2075 to 2283–3109 m. Dispersal simulations indicated that many newly suitable habitats may remain inaccessible. These findings support prioritizing stable montane refugia, maintaining elevational and landscape connectivity, and field validation of projected expansion areas and areas identified as dispersal limited.