Annual Balance of Energy Biomass in Poland: Supply and Emissions from Combustion Versus CO2 Uptake During Biomass Growth

Climate change shifts governments’ focus to introducing policies that decrease the impacts of GHGs (among other emissions) generated by the energy production industry. Biomass is regarded as a net-zero emission source of renewable chemical energy, but analyses show that this is not true at the national scale. The purpose of this study is to determine the scale at which fossil fuels can be replaced with biomass in Poland. Different scenarios of biomass usage were analyzed—theoretical resources, technical possibilities, and sustainable bioresource management. Scenarios regarding the increase in energy demand alongside biomass CO2 coverage up to 2050 were also forecasted. An inventory of biomass resources in five categories suitable for energy use in the Polish commercial power industry revealed a fuel shortage of approximately 20% with respect to meeting the total current demand (2025), with critical shortages of up to 60% by 2050. Further analysis revealed the impossibility of balancing the carbon dioxide produced during biomass combustion for energy production. At current energy production levels, the theoretical potential is sufficient, but when technical feasibility is considered, the imbalance reaches 20% and, with sustainable resource management, even 30%. By 2050, 50% and 60% of the shortages at the technical and sustainability levels, respectively, will occur in the CO2 exchange system.