Who votes when? Midterm and presidential voters differ primarily by age

Voters in American congressional midterm elections are widely viewed as demographically less representative than those in presidential elections - older, whiter, wealthier, and more educated. Using Current Population Survey data from 1994 through 2024 as well as voter-file data, we test this conventional wisdom and show that it is partly right but too broad. The key difference between midterm and presidential electorates is age: midterms sharply underrepresent young citizens and overrepresent older citizens compared to presidential elections, while differences between the elections by race, income, and education are much smaller. Midterm voters are, above all, older voters.

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Publication Details

Journal
PLoS ONE
Published
2026-10-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0360051
Primary Topic
Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Who votes when? Midterm and presidential voters differ primarily by age

Jonathan Nagler, Brian T. Hamel, Jan E. Leighley
PLoS ONE
Electoral Systems and Political Participation
article

Who votes when? Midterm and presidential voters differ primarily by age

Jonathan Nagler, Brian T. Hamel, Jan E. Leighley
article en

Abstract

Voters in American congressional midterm elections are widely viewed as demographically less representative than those in presidential elections - older, whiter, wealthier, and more educated. Using Current Population Survey data from 1994 through 2024 as well as voter-file data, we test this conventional wisdom and show that it is partly right but too broad. The key difference between midterm and presidential electorates is age: midterms sharply underrepresent young citizens and overrepresent older citizens compared to presidential elections, while differences between the elections by race, income, and education are much smaller. Midterm voters are, above all, older voters.

PLoS ONEVol. 21(10)
University of North Texas (US), American University (US), New York University (US)
Russell Sage Foundation, Sage Foundation
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Electoral Systems and Political Participation
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