LAB #4072 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.6% to 64. — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.6% to 64.2% (+31.6pp, n=67) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, none of the listed trades are USDCHF SHORTs, so this filter would have blocked zero existing trades and added zero new ones. The only potential indirect effect is if the filter were applied globally to all SHORTs at NY_OPEN with 5 conf, it would have suppressed the GBPUSD SHORT (WIN) and possibly the XAUUSD SHORT (LOSS), but since the filter is instrument-specific, no live trade in this window is affected. Net PnL delta in this window: $0, win-rate unchanged. The claimed +31.6pp improvement is from a backtest subset (n=67) that does not overlap with any current live positions. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, if the filter is genuinely selective for USDCHF SHORTs at NY_OPEN with 5 conf, you might see a modest win-rate lift on that specific pair/session, b Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23358556
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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LAB #4072 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.6% to 64. — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #4072 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.6% to 64. — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.6% to 64.2% (+31.6pp, n=67) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, none of the listed trades are USDCHF SHORTs, so this filter would have blocked zero existing trades and added zero new ones. The only potential indirect effect is if the filter were applied globally to all SHORTs at NY_OPEN with 5 conf, it would have suppressed the GBPUSD SHORT (WIN) and possibly the XAUUSD SHORT (LOSS), but since the filter is instrument-specific, no live trade in this window is affected. Net PnL delta in this window: $0, win-rate unchanged. The claimed +31.6pp improvement is from a backtest subset (n=67) that does not overlap with any current live positions. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, if the filter is genuinely selective for USDCHF SHORTs at NY_OPEN with 5 conf, you might see a modest win-rate lift on that specific pair/session, b Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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