Implementation Efficiency and Sustainable Infrastructure Outcomes: Evidence from NDB-Funded Projects in China, India, and South Africa

This study examines the relative implementation efficiency under a specified input–output framework and documented sustainability outcomes of New Development Bank (NDB)-financed infrastructure projects in India, China, and South Africa. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to 24 projects using loan amount and planned project duration as inputs and completion status and disbursement rate as outputs. An input-oriented Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) model is employed as the primary specification, complemented by Constant Returns to Scale (CRS) and scale-efficiency estimates. The results indicate substantial variation in relative implementation efficiency, with mean VRS efficiency of 0.631 and only three projects reaching the efficiency frontier. Mean scale efficiency is 0.882, with 17 of 24 projects exhibiting full scale efficiency. Sustainability evidence was available for 20 projects and was organized using a Sustainable Infrastructure Outcome Matrix (SIOM), which records project-specific environmental, social, and economic/development outcomes without aggregating heterogeneous indicators into a single sustainability index. Comparison of the efficiency and sustainability profiles indicates that implementation efficiency and documented sustainability outcomes do not necessarily coincide. Supplementary analysis further shows that financial disbursement represents a distinct dimension of project performance. The findings support a multidimensional approach to evaluating NDB infrastructure projects in which implementation efficiency, financial execution, and project-specific sustainability outcomes are assessed separately but considered together.