Administrative state capacity and the effect of EU democracy assistance on levels of democracy: a time-series cross-sectional analysis, 2007–2021

Abstract The European Union (EU) is one of the world’s major donors of democracy assistance, which aims to foster democratisation. Its effects, however, depend on various conditional factors. This study explores the nexus between democracy assistance and administrative state capacity. Since democracy assistance seeks to strengthen —not substitute—the state and its institutions, we argue that administrative capacity is a crucial condition for the effectiveness of democracy assistance. To test our argument, we conduct a time-series cross-sectional analysis covering EU democracy assistance allocation from 2007 to 2021 across 23 countries in the EU’s neighbourhood. Our results indicate that assistance allocated to countries with higher state capacity has a more substantial effect on their levels of democracy than assistance allocated to countries with lower state capacity. With that, we address an important research gap and contribute to policy debates on the allocation of democracy assistance.