The fragmented green state: state capacity, green macrofinancial regimes, and political contestation in Thailand’s energy transition

This paper contributes to debates on green states and green macrofinancial regimes in the Global South. It analyses Thailand, an upper-middle-income country that, although subject to international financial subordination, has sufficient domestic finance to support renewable energy rollout. However, despite consensus on the need for green transition, renewable energy remains low in Thailand’s energy mix. We explain this using the concept of the fragmented green state. State managers in macroeconomic and energy planning express support for green policies, but the fragmented state bureaucracy and contestation between competing coalitions lead to competing green macrofinancial regimes emerging. Fiscal hawks and green planners, linked to a reformist coalition, support weak derisking, including structural market-based reforms to the electricity sector. Geopolitical hawks, in alliance with state and large private energy firms, support limited robust derisking or Big Green State policies to maintain control over the power sector and advance renewables as supplementary to the core business of natural gas. This contestation prevents a green macrofinancial bargain that could support decarbonization. The fragmented green state could be relevant in understanding barriers to decarbonization in other Global South contexts.