The response of cropping systems to climate anomalies: evidence from China

Cropping systems adjustment is a potentially important yet underexplored adaptation to climate change, particularly in developing countries. Using county-level panel data from China from 2001–2020 and two-way fixed-effects model, this study provides new evidence on the relationships between climate anomalies and different cropping systems, while also examining channel and regional heterogeneity. We find that higher temperature anomalies are associated with less single cropping but more double cropping, while higher rainfall anomalies are associated with more single cropping. Potential channel analysis shows that mechanization is associated with stronger expansions of double cropping under higher temperature anomalies and single cropping under higher rainfall anomalies, while irrigation and varietal innovation are associated with a stronger expansion of double cropping under higher temperature anomalies. Higher temperature anomalies are associated with a stronger shift from single to double cropping in warm regions. The positive association between rainfall anomalies and single cropping is more pronounced in dry and humid regions but weaker in wet regions. The shock of climate anomalies is weaker in major grain-producing regions. These findings demonstrate that cropping-system adjustment is an important margin of climate adaptation and that its effectiveness depends on local endowments. Policies should therefore promote context-specific mechanization, irrigation investment, and climate-resilient varietal innovation to enhance agricultural adaptation and food-production resilience.