The dynamic effects of food production and environmental stress on life expectancy in conflict-affected Somalia

Food production is a paramount but underexamined factor associated with population health, particularly in low-income countries, where conflict and environmental stress disrupt agricultural systems. Somalia presents a compelling case: persistent food insecurity, recurrent droughts, low agricultural productivity, and prolonged internal conflict collectively undermine public health outcomes. Against this background, this study examines the relationship between food production and life expectancy in Somalia while accounting for education, environmental degradation, demographic change, and internal conflict. Using annual time-series data spanning 1990–2020, the analysis applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing framework to estimate long-run associations and short-run dynamics. Notably, the results reveal that food production has a positive and statistically significant association with life expectancy in both the short- and long-run. Education is positively and significantly associated with longevity in the long-run in the baseline model, although its coefficient becomes smaller and statistically insignificant when internal conflict is included. Environmental degradation is negatively associated with life expectancy, with the relationship becoming statistically significant in the conflict-adjusted model. However, population exhibits contrasting short- and long-run associations with life expectancy. Internal conflict is negatively and significantly associated with life expectancy. Robustness checks support the consistency of the long-run relationships, and Granger-causality analysis identifies predictive relationships from food production and education to life expectancy. In light of these findings, policy efforts should prioritize strengthening domestic food systems, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, expanding educational opportunities, and reducing conflict-related disruptions as complementary strategies for improving population health in Somalia.