Hierarchical DEMATEL-based key risk identification for urban public safety within grid management

With the acceleration of urbanization, urban public safety risks have exhibited characteristics of diversification, complexity, and linkage. Based on the grid-based governance concept of “comprehensive horizontal coverage and hierarchical vertical stratification” and combined with the hierarchical DEMATEL method, this paper constructs an urban public safety Grid Risk System for Urban Public Safety (GRSFUPS) and a risk analysis framework. GRSFUPS takes grids as the minimum governance units and progressively refines four types of A-level risks—natural disasters, public health, social security, and accident disasters—into B-level and C-level risks, forming a complex system with clear hierarchies and close linkages. Subsequently, using Kunming as a case study, a case application study was conducted on its critical public safety risks. Combined with centrality ranking and the Pareto principle, 55 critical risk factors were identified from 258 risk factors. Research results indicate that public health incidents and accident disaster risks occupy a dominant position in Kunming City, while natural disaster risks such as meteorological and flood hazards repeatedly appear across multiple districts and exhibit significant amplification effects. Theoretically, this paper enriches the urban public safety risk identification framework from a grid-based perspective. Practically, it provides a new analytical paradigm and methodological support for Kunming City and other similar cities to conduct risk governance under grid-based management models.