Green Pathways to Sustainable Productivity: The Mechanisms Underlying the Effect of Corporate ESG Performance on Regional New Quality Productivity

Against the backdrop of the “dual carbon” goals and the sustainable development goals, whether and how micro-level corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) improvements aggregate into gains in regional new quality productivity (RNQP) remains underexplored. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed companies and 30 provinces over 2011–2023, this paper aggregates ESG ratings to the provincial level, constructs an RNQP evaluation system, and applies two-way fixed-effects models, addressing endogeneity through lagged regressors and instrumental-variable estimation and identifying mechanisms with mediation and moderation models. The results show a robust positive association: a one-unit improvement in corporate ESG performance is associated with an average increase of about 1.59 units in RNQP. Green technology innovation and technology market turnover are consistent with two partial transmission channels, accounting for 9.3% and 16.7% of the total association, respectively. Carbon emission intensity and environmental regulation intensity both moderate the relationship significantly and negatively. The point estimate of the association is largest during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and for the governance dimension, although not all pairwise coefficient differences are statistically significant, and formal tests reveal no significant differences across regions. These findings provide empirical evidence for improving ESG disclosure rules and fostering green technology markets and offer insights into advancing the sustainable development goals through corporate micro-level governance.