The Institutional Sensitivity of Crisis Response: Evidence From Local Government Policy Overreaction in China

ABSTRACT Effective policy responses are essential to crisis management, yet local governments often adopt measures that exceed what objective conditions require during crises. Such instances of overreaction offer a valuable lens for understanding the institutional dynamics that drive crisis response behavior. This study develops the concept of institutional sensitivity, an adaptive behavioral process through which governments interpret crisis conditions and strategically adjust their response strategies within institutional contexts. Drawing on China's population mobility management policies during the COVID‐19 pandemic, this study applies survival analysis models and spatial analyses to assess how peer effects, administrative accountability, and administrative capacity shape policy overreaction. The findings reveal a pronounced institutional sensitivity in crisis response: peer effects and administrative accountability significantly increase the likelihood of overreaction, whereas administrative capacity has no overall effect. These policy response behaviors also vary systematically across different crisis conditions. During high‐risk conditions, peer effects and accountability pressures increase overreaction, while administrative capacity restrains the likelihood of overreaction; under moderate‐risk conditions, this pattern reverses. This study advances theoretical understanding of the dynamic institutional sensitivity of crisis management and highlights the spatial and temporal effects embedded in governmental policy behavior.