MODEL ADOPTION #4027: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.1% — E8 Intelligence Research
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No single rule survives — the 6-confirmation filter is a statistical artifact, not an E8-geometry edge. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win rate would rise (+5.6pp) but total R/month likely flat or negative — the filter kills fast-breakout winners (e.g., `rizzy7m` EURUSD LONG) that rely on early entry before confirmation builds. Net effect: fewer trades, smaller average win, no profit gain. RISK: Regime shift — in low-liquidity/news windows, waiting for 6 confirmations causes missed entries entirely, silently converting a filter into a stop-loss on opportunity. Also, the 6 threshold is not derived from E8 timing (Gods-Clock rhythm, FADE polarity) — it's a generic lag metric that ignores the model's core geometry. TEST: Before any adoption, run a 30-day shadow replay on the live feed with two portfolios (A: all signals, B: ≥6 confirmations). Require ≥300 trades per arm. Additionally, sweep 4/6/8 confirmations — if 6 is not a local optimum (i.e., 4 and 8 show similar o Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-10-13
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23332431
- Primary Topic
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Type
- preprint