Release or Squeeze? The Impact of the Digital Economy on Vegetation Cover in Chinese Cities

Whether digitalization, while promoting urban economic growth, is accompanied by environmental problems is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the sustainability of the digital economy. Using remote sensing–based ecological data for 284 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2023, this study identifies the effect of digital economy development on vegetation dynamics through a double machine learning framework. The main findings are as follows: (1) a one-standard-deviation increase in the digital economy index reduces city-level vegetation cover by approximately 1.13%. (2) The mechanism operates through a dominance of agglomeration costs over efficiency gains induced by digitalization, manifested in intensified land development and increased air pollution, ultimately encroaching upon green space. (3) Further analysis shows that digital economy-induced vegetation degradation follows an inverted-U-shaped pattern as population density increases, and this adverse impact also exhibits a pronounced spatial spillover to neighboring cities. These findings suggest that digitalization entails a trade-off between efficiency gains and agglomeration costs, underscoring the need for urban management policies that balance digital growth and ecological sustainability.