Do you think you can win? Effects of formal and informal pronouns of address on probability estimates in French and Dutch

Abstract This study examines probability estimates associated with the use of formal and informal pronouns of address in two future event scenarios in Dutch and in French (viz. winning a cash prize in a lottery, and being selected for a seat on a later flight after a cancellation). We hypothesize that formal pronouns may either decrease estimated probabilities of desirable events because they increase the perceived distance to them, or they may increase estimated probabilities because they convey greater professionalism than informal pronouns; which of these effects is expected to occur depends on language-specific norms. While our results do not show an overall interaction effect between language and pronoun of address, they show that, in both languages and scenarios, younger consumers low in optimism feel a reduced psychological distance to the prizes and consequently estimate higher probabilities of winning when addressed with a fitting pronoun. While in French, aligning communication with conventionalized linguistic norms boosts probability estimates, in Dutch, deviation from such norms results in a similar effect.