Projected temperature extremes variability assessment using CMIP5 multi-model ensembles over Gujarat, India

The regional impacts of extreme climate events have been worsening over the last two decades and have intensified over the years. It has a major effect on health, agriculture and the hydrological cycle on a large scale therefore, it’s very important to determine and quantify the future duration and intensity of such events. This study explores the Spatio-temporal variation in seven selected extreme temperature indices for the period 2025-2099 using five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios over Gujarat, India. The results demonstrated that minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to rise significantly in both scenarios, with the most significant increase expected during the post-monsoon season. We could see a rise of more than 4.6°C in maximum temperature under higher scenario by the end of the 21st century. The warming and cooling indices show a significant increase and decrease, respectively, irrespective of the regional diversity. Overall, most indices show a substantial change except for the diurnal temperature range however, some models (BNU-ESM and MPI-ESM-LR) seem to have greater variability when compared to the multi-model mean (MMM).