THIRTY YEARS OF FIGHTING CORRUPTION: What Have Been the Results?

Three decades after the establishment of the contemporary international anti-corruption architecture, a fundamental question remains: to what extent have its rules, institutions and activities translated into an effective reduction in corruption? This article examines the gap between institutional activity and anti-corruption outcomes using documentation and data from the European Commission, the OECD, the United Nations, the OAS, the IMF, OLAF and the European Public Prosecutor's Office. It proposes evaluating outcomes through an analytical chain encompassing the observability of corruption, the receipt and verification of information, access to investigation, prosecution, sanctions, their enforcement and asset recovery, identifying potential losses between the different stages. The analysis connects international estimates of the macroeconomic dimension of corruption with the limitations of available indicators for determining what proportion of the phenomenon is detected, investigated, sanctioned and reduced. It also examines a specific observability and measurement gap concerning corruption that may involve public officials and officeholders, as well as the importance of effective protection for whistleblowers, journalists and lawyers in the functioning of detection mechanisms. Finally, it advances the hypothesis that certain anti-corruption systems, when their controls are known but their enforcement remains insufficient, may generate counterproductive effects and indirectly facilitate the adaptation and concealment of some corrupt practices. The article concludes that the expansion of the anti-corruption architecture does not, in itself, constitute evidence of an equivalent reduction in corruption. It proposes extending evaluation to effective outcomes, measurement gaps and the possible unintended effects of systems established to combat corruption.