U.S. oil and gas methane emission intensity declined 2019–2024 with little indication of federal policy impact

The U.S. federal government undertook a historic legislative effort to regulate methane emissions from the oil and gas sectors beginning in 2021 through the Inflation Reduction Act and Waste Emissions Charge. Despite a substantial rollback of these regulations in subsequent years, U.S. oil and gas methane emissions during this policy window are largely uncharacterized. Here we estimate changes in U.S. methane emissions both before and directly after this policy window (years 2019 to 2024) using an inverse model constrained by satellite observations. Overall, we find that oil and gas methane emissions decreased by 0.58 [0.30, 0.96] Tg from 2019 to 2023, but increased by 0.21 [-0.06, 0.53] Tg in the years following the new federal policy (2023–2024). We find that methane emissions intensity declined by 11.1% [9.3%, 13.6%] from 2019 to 2024, likely as a result of gradual technological and operational developments, and existing federal regulations. Oil and gas emissions in the USA have declined from 2019 to 2024, likely as a result of gradual technological and operational developments, and existing federal regulations, according to an inverse model constrained by satellite observations.