Understanding the Relevance of Early Childhood Behavioral Issues for Predicting Continued Recidivism in Emerging Adulthood Among Justice-Involved Youth: An Item Response Theory Approach

Abstract Early childhood behavioral issues have been identified as a robust risk factor for chronic offending outcomes. However, there remains a dearth of research examining how specific patterns and combinations of these behavior issues may contribute to differential overall seriousness of such behavior. This study provided an examination of how latent childhood behavior issue severity predicts offending risk in emerging adulthood. The Pathways to Desistance data were analyzed. An item response theory model was used to identify a latent continuum of childhood behavioral issue seriousness comprised of five distinct behavioral indicators: cheating, fighting, disturbing class, getting drunk/stoned, and stealing. Logistic regression examined how seriousness scores predicted risk for general offending and violent offending in emerging adulthood. A two-parameter item response theory model was estimated. Disturbing class provided the greatest capacity for discriminating between low and high seriousness behavioral issues, whereas getting drunk/stoned was identified as the most serious behavioral issue. Greater childhood behavioral issue seriousness significantly predicted greater general offending risk in emerging adulthood, but not violent offending. Disturbing class best distinguished between justice-involved youth who reported higher vs. lower seriousness behavioral issues in childhood, but this was likely discriminating mainly between participants who reported any vs. no childhood behavioral issues.