Shadow of success: the temporal association between performance incentive system and research misconduct

Research misconduct has emerged as a pressing concern, with retractions reaching unprecedented levels globally. While often framed as individual ethical failures, evidence suggests institutional incentives shape research integrity. This study examines temporal patterns in research misconduct following performance-based research evaluation reforms in China, a rapidly emerging global powerhouse in research productivity. Using a multiple interrupted time-series design, we analyse misconduct-related retraction rates over three decades and across disciplines to assess the association between research evaluation reforms and misconduct trends. Misconduct-related retraction rates showed significant level and trend shifts around the 1995, 1998, and 2015 reforms, with the clearest differential increase in STEM fields following the 1998 reform and a pronounced acceleration in humanities and social sciences fields after 2015. These temporal patterns align with the staggered institutionalization of metric-based evaluation across disciplines. While more recent reforms aim to de-emphasize quantitative indicators, we confine the analysis to early phases of policy introduction and intensification where sufficient post-reform temporal observations allow us to identify stable misconduct patterns. By mapping the temporal alignment between metric-based evaluation and shifts in retraction trends, we document systematic associations between changes in research evaluation regimes and research-integrity outcomes. The study contributes to the ongoing research governance discussions in the global scientific community by addressing common challenges in fostering ethical research amid increasing competition and quantified evaluation.