Accommodating electric vehicle charging and water heating within distribution networks: a case study of the Australian Capital Territory

Electrification and population growth are increasing electricity demand globally. While this makes some infrastructure expansion inevitable, the extent - and cost - of this expansion, is far from inevitable. Existing infrastructure utilization is highly irregular, creating periods of significant spare capacity. If electrified appliances can concentrate their demand within these times, infrastructure expansion can be minimized. This paper presents a reference point for the scale of this opportunity with a case study of the Australian Capital Territory. It uses granular, real-world data and a simple, intuitive approach to scheduling electric vehicle charging and residential water heating. The approach builds policy-maker intuition and parallels Australian government policy that incentivizes daytime demand with three hours of free power. The results indicate that this basic approach, in principle, enables the electrification of 100% of private vehicles and water heating without exacerbating demand beyond the peak demand due to other loads, particularly space heating and cooling. Noting that practical realization of such a result is dependent on specific local context and implementation pathways, two policy implications stand out. Firstly, simple approaches for incentivizing the flexibility of electrified appliances should be acted upon immediately, as a priority; there is no need to wait for more sophisticated solutions. Examples include electricity pricing and setting appliance defaults. Secondly, concerted investment in building thermal performance is required to reduce heating and cooling demand; otherwise heating and cooling demand will drive major network upgrades, even if other electrified appliances operate flexibly.