Structural heterogeneity shapes economic resilience and ecosystem-service trade-offs in Mediterranean Montado agroecosystems: a farm-level bioeconomic analysis

CONTEXT Mediterranean agro-silvopastoral systems provide both market outputs and ecosystem services, yet their economic capacity to remain viable under climate, market, and policy stress may depend strongly on farm structure. The Portuguese Montado exemplifies this challenge: beneath a shared landscape label lie structurally distinct farm archetypes whose economic responses to external shocks may differ markedly. OBJECTIVE This study examines whether structural heterogeneity, among three purposefully selected Montado farm archetypes, shapes their economic resilience profiles and ecosystem-service trade-offs under common external stressors. METHODS The forestry-oriented case was represented by a deterministic accounting model, whereas the mixed agro-silvopastoral and livestock-specialized cases used calibrated nonlinear optimization models. Economic resilience was evaluated using a Resilience Index, Conditional Value-at-Risk, operating-profit sensitivity, and scenario-specific viability outcomes. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Economic resilience differed systematically across archetypes (RI: 0.907, 0.839, and 0.752, respectively). Policy exposure explained most of this divergence: the livestock-specialized farm became unprofitable under full Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) withdrawal (operating-profit proxy: -€19,242), indicating that public support is structurally enabling for this archetype. Climate responses were also heterogeneous: diversification did not buffer stress in the mixed system, which faced correlated vulnerabilities across feed supply, water availability, and livestock energy requirements. Ecosystem-service provision involved non-linear, archetype-specific opportunity costs, and marginal results-based payments outperformed flat supplements by inducing land-use adjustments that more than offset compliance costs in the most policy-exposed system (+42.2% operating-profit gain). SIGNIFICANCE Economic resilience in Mediterranean agroecosystems cannot be inferred from average-farm assessments. This study provides a replicable framework for archetype-sensitive agri-environmental policy design in Montado-type and other heterogeneous silvopastoral systems.