Beyond the equations: Integrating political economy into modelling green-growth pathways for low- and middle-income countries

Energy system models are increasingly used to guide infrastructure planning and energy and climate policy in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Yet these models are predominantly built around technical and economic assumptions that inadequately account for the political and institutional realities that shape whether modelling outputs are adopted and implemented. This perspective addresses that gap by presenting structured guidelines for integrating political economy analysis throughout the energy system modelling process. The guidelines focus on what needs to be considered at each stage, and signposts to theories and frameworks that can guide implementation. Drawing on the complementary expertise of political economists and modellers, and grounded in experiences across diverse LMIC settings, the guidelines inform seven stages of the modelling process: 1) problem definition, 2) model selection and world view, 3) data collection, 4) assumption setting and scenario development, 5) calibration and interpretation, 6) policy recommendation development, and 7) communication and engagement. The guidelines encourage iterative, reflexive and collaborative practices rather than a mechanical procedure. They emphasise stakeholder co-creation and transparency in model assumptions, along with sensitivity to power dynamics, institutional constraints, and political feasibility. We contend that the purpose of modelling is not solely to identify optimal solutions but to facilitate dialogue, build shared understanding, and support coalition formation around feasible pathways forward. Our contribution offers context-specific guidance that is responsive to the political realities of LMICs. These guidelines aim to strengthen the legitimacy and contextual relevance of modelling analyses in support of climate-compatible development.