War-induced ecosystem services loss in rural Ukraine: Spatial heterogeneity and resilience-based recovery pathways

Ongoing hostilities in Ukraine continue not only to devastate socio-economic infrastructure – undermining the foundations of present and future human and social capital – but also to cause irreparable damage to the country's unique natural capital. While existing research primarily addresses the environmental consequences of the war through damage assessments to environmental components, insufficient attention is devoted to the identification and monetary valuation of war -related losses of ecosystem services. These losses are reflected in declines in ecosystem service flows resulting from disruptions in ecosystem functioning under military disturbances, leading to reduced contributions to human well-being and long-term constraints on post-war rural recovery. In this study, we develop a framework for the economic evaluation of war-related ecosystem service losses by integrating indicators of degradation, vulnerability, and recovery with remote sensing data. Conceptually, the study treats war-related environmental degradation as a spatially differentiated disruption of ecosystem service flows within rural socio-economic-ecological systems. Methodologically, it links the modeled war-related component of vegetation change to ecosystem service value estimates across croplands, forests, and grasslands, using frontline Sumy Region of Ukraine as a case study. The framework combines Landsat-derived vegetation data, spatially differentiated conflict intensity, atmospheric pollution indicators, and land use/land cover specific ecosystem service value coefficients. The results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of ecosystem service value losses across territorial communities. Under the specified composite valuation model, the estimated annual reduction in ecosystem service value in Sumy Region was approximately USD 420 million; the figure is sensitive to possible overlap among military-pressure indicators. Croplands account for roughly 87% of the total, while fifteen border communities accounted for more than 60% of the regional estimated loss, with losses in some communities reaching 12% relative to the 2021 baseline. These estimates are substantially higher than those derived using officially applied environmental damage assessment methodologies. Finally, specific recovery pathways for rural Ukraine are proposed.